Of Thoughts and Swords

A blog about Science, Philosophy, Wargaming, Literature and other things, in three or more languages.

Cheating probabilities today the d6

Besides me vowing to post more, this post is about the most beloved (or beloathed) die of all: the d6.

Non-Gamers sometime look very confused when they speak about dice and you ask them: what kind?.In the mind of “normal” people the d6 is a a/the dice, whenever someone uses the word they refer to the hexahedron. Mostly this is due to the fact that it is the historically most used gaming die. In German the word Würfel (die and dice, it has no plural) also desribes the mathematical cube, which only aggravates the “problem”. Well, at least by now we are all used to explain it to other people.

I myseld have grown tired of the d6. It has not enough variability for my taste, it is too predictable. On top the typical a 1 always misses/ a 6 always hits, is just to damn probable for my taste, to really represent a lucky hit. I have come to relish d10 systems in rpgs and just love the d20 (well sometimes) in wargaming.

Yesterdays game of Dreadball once more showed me, why I hate the d6. I simply can´t roll a 4+.

The last five games with my robot team, I lost or almost lost due to seventeen d6 rolling below 4. Yesterday it at least happened to both of us. It started with me having three dice, one 4 on any of them and the game is won. Nope, not gonna happen. The next thing is him picking up the ball and having the same roll 3 dice against 4+. Nope, not happening. I then get it back throwing it around, not catching it (yupp, 4+). He loses the ball again and I try to pick it up,this time 4 dice any 4 will do. Nope, not this game. After that he proceeded with the strike finally rolling a 4 (and only 1 among three dice).

Probablity is not called certainty for a reason, but the sheer amount of dice failing to roll a 4+ on a d6, which happened to me within the last 17 years is astonishing. Another good example are my Eldar Farseers and Warlocks. So you got 4 wounds and a 4+ invulnerable with a re-roll, okay three dead Eldar. And this was happening quite often.

On the other hand I love a roll of 5+ any day, in a similar fashion I botch my 4+, I attain the 5+. My Eldar Guardians, with their 5+ cover save typically weatherd far more hits than statistically sane. 7 saves on 5+ would on average result in onl 2-3 wounds. This happened on a regular basis, just as my flunked 4+ rolls. I will try to play a Dreadball team which needs 5+ to suceed, maybe then I will start winning:)

On the other hand I could start to offer people that I always need a 5+ when the rules say 4+…


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This entry was posted on February 28, 2014 by in Random Thoughts, Wargaming.
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